How Does Analytics Forecasting Work?

Forecast gives you an estimate of what you’re likely to earn — or how many streams you’re likely to get — next month, along with an explanation of why.

What it forecasts

You can toggle between two metrics:

• Revenue — Estimated earnings for next month.
• Streams — Estimated stream count for next month.

What it’s based on

Your forecast is calculated from your confirmed and paid royalty history — the same figures shown on your Royalty Reports page. You need at least 2 months of confirmed or paid royalty history before a forecast can be generated; until then, you’ll see a “not enough data yet” state.

How the forecast is calculated

• Your growth rate is calculated month-over-month, then weighted across your last 3 months (most recent month weighted heaviest, tapering off for the two before it).
• Your forecast for next month is based on your current month’s numbers adjusted by that weighted growth trend, plus any relevant impact factors.
• If a recent unusual spike is detected in your data, the forecast doesn’t just extrapolate the spike forward — it blends back toward your pre-spike average, so one unusually good (or bad) month doesn’t distort your forecast.

Confidence and trend

Alongside your forecast amount, you’ll see:

• Confidence — High, Medium, or Low, based on how consistent your last 6 months have been.
• Trend — Strong Growth, Growing, Stable, or Declining.

Catalog Health

A separate Catalog Health score (0–100) reflects your overall financial health, based on:

• Consistency (40%) — how stable your revenue has been.
• Growth direction (40%) — whether you’re trending up or down.
• Release activity (20%) — how active you’ve been with new releases.

Catalog Health is always based on Revenue, regardless of which metric (Revenue or Streams) you’re currently viewing.

Forecast Drivers and Factors

• Forecast Drivers shows what’s specifically influencing your forecast number, including your growth momentum and any other multipliers affecting the calculation.
• Factors Influencing Forecast lists broader factors — positive, negative, or neutral — that are shaping your outlook, such as recent release activity or consistency trends.

Is this a guarantee?

No — Forecast is an estimate based on your historical patterns, not a guaranteed outcome. Actual results can vary based on real-world streaming performance, new releases, and other factors outside historical trends.